In addition to assessing the market that has just experienced a sharp decline, causing VN-Index's P/E to fall to 12-13 times, experts will reassess the margin level and the stock industry groups with investment prospects in this moment.
The market has just gone through a "turbulent" week, especially the "shakeout" session on October 26 when the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 46 points, world stock indexes all fell sharply and broke support. . Will the current threshold of 1,050-1,060 points help the market regain balance for next week, according to you?
Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Investment Capacity Development, VPS Securities Company
Besides the hope that the market has dropped to the deepest area in the middle of last week with the support threshold of 1,040 - 1,050 points, there are still concerns about the decline of some large stocks such as VIC, VHM, VRE or MSN, BCM SAB... can have a big impact on the index.
We still need to be cautious with short-term fluctuations of the market even though the scenario of VN-Index rebounding from the threshold of 1,050 - 1,060 points to 1,075 - 1,080 points next week is still possible.
Mr. Duong Hoang Linh, Director of Analysis, Sacombank Securities (SBS)
There are no signs to expect a change in trend next week. The current short-term trend is still negative and is considered more risky than an opportunity to surf.
I think the market will need more time to truly find balance. The index's support threshold will be in the 1,020-1,030 area, not 1,050-1,060 anymore. In fact, these numbers do not have much meaning at the current stage when short-term cash flow is still weak and shows no signs of improvement.
Mr. Truong Thai Dat, chief analyst, DSC Securities
The sell-off momentum of many stocks in the VN30 index basket, although due to many individual reasons, still caused the index to reach the oversold level. This is the main influencing factor creating a recovery in the weekend session, and extending the recovery momentum into the next week.
The market's weakness still lies in the liquidity factor. If looking from a technical perspective, it can be clearly seen that the 5-week average trading volume of VN-Index is lower than the 20-week average trading volume.
Therefore, I estimate that VN-Index will have a short recovery period with a target of 1,100. The medium and long-term trend will need a certain amount of time to stabilize and form a bottom, especially after a deeper correction of 15% and a distribution zone lasting 2 months.
Mr. Ngo Quoc Hung, Senior Research Specialist, Market Strategy Department, MBS Securities Company
In my opinion, whether the market adjusted down to the area of 1,050 - 1,060 points is a balanced area or not, it cannot be confirmed as the information flow both domestically and internationally has not generally worsened but there have been no positive changes either. .
The market still needs more signals to confirm, for example, the index may fluctuate in a narrow range, but groups of stocks have signals of successfully retesting the previous support or bottom zone..., or it could also be Market liquidity needs to increase again...
The market has gone through a trading week with many fluctuations, especially the sharp drop of 46 points on October 26. However, a positive signal appeared in the weekend session when VN-Index reversed to increase and returned to the 1,060 point mark. I think the index's correction may continue but is about to end.
Currently, risks coming from complex factors such as geopolitical conflicts, changes in monetary policies of countries, risks of global economic recession or rising exchange rates are still present and becoming more prevalent. pressure on the stock market.
However, VN-Index has discounted to an area where market valuations and many stock groups become more attractive. Currently, VN-Index's P/E has decreased to 13 times, lower than 1 standard deviation of the market's average P/E over the past 10 years.
The 1,050 - 1,060 area will be an important area to test supply and demand next week. The market can fluctuate with a large amplitude around this area before finding an equilibrium point and forming the next trend.
Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Investment Capacity Development, VPS Securities Company
The movement to create a bottom in the market still needs to be accompanied by liquidity and strong recovery of basic stock groups, leading stock groups and large capitalization stocks in the finance, technology and real estate sectors. , chemicals, basic resources.
Psychological factors are influencing investors' trading behavior, geopolitical risks, false rumors, information related to listed businesses - investors still need to screen businesses. , choose investment opportunities rather than being too concerned about short-term fluctuations of the market. The important thing to keep in mind is to strictly manage your investment portfolio and the proportion of shares held.
Mr. Duong Hoang Linh, Director of Analysis, Sacombank Securities (SBS)
My long-term experience is that you should not try to judge where the bottom is, this action often brings no real benefit. In fact, at the present time, there are absolutely no signals to determine the short-term bottom.
Factors that investors need to pay attention to currently are: global stock market developments (quite negative), foreign investors' actions (continuous net selling of pillar stocks recently), signals from Vingroup group ...
Mr. Truong Thai Dat, chief analyst, DSC Securities
After a long period of adjustment and distribution, but with market liquidity remaining at low levels, short-term bottoms are mainly formed due to panic selling creating oversold areas. The sell-off momentum combined with deep discounts will trigger short-term bottom-fishing cash flow.
To create a long-term bottom, there needs to be a clear participation of new cash flows, creating areas of balance that can be detected with technical indicators. With other factors, during this period, investors mainly monitor new risks: business results that are unlikely to cause sudden changes, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, exchange rates and moves to control exchange rates, and along with that is a negative trend in major stock markets such as the US market.
Mr. Ngo Quoc Hung, Senior Research Specialist, Market Strategy Department, MBS Securities Company
The market has dropped nearly 218 points, equivalent to a loss of 17.34% of its value since the peak of 1,255 points. The market's downward correction lasted 2 months, half the duration of the previous 4-month upward wave. Thus, the recent downtrend seems to have returned the results of the rising wave led by the SBV's interest rate cuts.
At the lowest level in last weekend's session, the market reached the accumulation zone in March and April, so in a positive scenario, the short-term bottom of the market could be in the area: 1,020 - 1,030 points. , even the psychological threshold of 1,000 points can be mentioned.
Regarding factors affecting the stock market, outside world stocks are still in decline for the third consecutive month, some markets in Southeast Asia have lost all their gains since the beginning of the year, Higher interest rates for longer continue to be a drag on world stocks. Domestically, some blue-chip stocks are seeing a decline of 18% to nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, which will be a factor that investors need to pay attention to.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Head of Analysis Department, Agribank Securities Company (AGR)
The bottom of the stock market is often only known when it has passed, but now there have been a few signs to believe that the correction may soon end. The market also had a few sessions of recovery efforts when the valuation of VN-Index was discounted to a more attractive area. Although the general economy is still facing many difficulties, it is gradually recovering as support policies penetrate.
In the current period, investors need to pay attention to a number of factors such as geopolitical conflicts, changes in monetary policies of countries, risks of global economic recession or the story of rising exchange rates, which is still a concern. existing market risks.
In addition, investors need to monitor the third quarter business results of newly announced businesses to be able to assess the level of profit recovery and find investment opportunities during strong adjustment periods. of the market.